Russian President Vladimir Putin has wrapped up his 25th official visit to China, four days after U.S. President Donald Trump finished his trip to Beijing. What can we expect from China-Russia relations in the years ahead? And what could Beijing’s interactions with Trump and Putin mean for the future of the world?
Host Dou Hongyu is joined by Qin Qian with East China University of Political Science and Law, Associate Professor Wang Xinsong at the School of Government of Beijing Normal University, and Adjunct Professor Warwick Powell at the Queensland University of Technology, to answer these questions.
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1.We have witnessed the rare back-to-back visits by the U.S. and Russian President to China within two weeks. How do you read the significance of this timing of Putin's visit?
It is a coincidence that Trump and Putin comes within two weeks due to Trump’s delay, but it’s not a coincidence that both of them plan to come this year. US President has not come to China for state visit for nearly ten years.
In fact, in addition to these two top leaders,
Macron the president of France visited China in December last year, PM Starmer of the UK came earlier this year, and now the U.S. and Russian presidents have visited China within two weeks of each other. Within roughly half a year, the leaders of all five permanent members of the UN Security Council have made Beijing a central diplomatic destination. In fact, this is not a common thing. I would say Beijing is increasingly becoming a diplomatic hub where leaders of major powers feel they must come.
The timing is highly significant because it turns Beijing into the temporary center stage of great-power diplomacy. Within days, China hosted both the U.S. and Russian presidents, allowing Beijing to present itself not as a passive object of U.S.-Russia rivalry, but as a power that both sides must engage.
2.Chinese President Xi Jinping says China-Russia relationship has entered a new stage of greater achievements and faster development. Why do you think the relationship is moving faster now?
The strategic environment is pushing China and Russia closer. As we can see, the U.S.-led international order is becoming more unstable, partly due to the unilateral behaviour of the United States - technology restrictions, trade war, military actions. Because of the Ukraine war, Russia doesn’t have many options as it faces sanctions by Western markets, so it needs China as an economic and trade power. On the other hand, Russia has energy, oil and gas, and the internationalization of Renminbi has become reality in Russia. There are many things to cooperate between the two countries.
3.China and Russia extended the China-Russia Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation.
(1)The treaty, first signed in 2001, stresses mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, non-interference, and resolving disputes through dialogue under the UN framework. Looking back over the past two decades, how important has this treaty been for the relationship?
This year marks the 25th anniversary of the Treaty and this time is Putin’s 25th visit to China. It is a coincidence but this treaty is definitely important because it has stabilized the political foundation of China-Russia relations after a very difficult time. I want directly quote the Article 6 of the Treaty. The contracting parties point out with satisfaction that each has no territorial claim on the other and both are resolved to make active efforts in building the border between the two countries into one where ever-lasting peace and friendship prevail. In fact, territory and border issues are critical historical problems between the two countries. China and Soviet Union, as we all know, even went into armed conflicts. However after long negotiations, China and Russia have fixed the issues and this is the most important political foundation.
The treaty has served as a basic framework within which these different forms of cooperation could grow steadily. The treaty gave both countries confidence that neither side would treat the other as a threat or interfere in the other’s internal affairs. This was especially important for two large neighboring powers with complicated historical memories.
(2)The treaty was first extended in 2021, after 20 years of initial validity, and now it has been extended again. Why can it stand the test of times amid all the geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty?
First, it addresses a fundamental need for both countries: strategic stability between two major neighboring powers. China and Russia share a long border and a complicated historical legacy. The treaty helps ensure that this geography becomes an asset rather than a source of insecurity. In that sense, it provides a stable framework for mutual trust, border peace, and long-term predictability.
The treaty is built on common interests instead of temporary convenience. It is also flexible. It does not create a NATO-style military alliance. Both countries can still have their own ideas on international issues. We don’t need to agree with each other on everything but we share some common interests and respect the other.
(3)Compared with five years ago, what special significance does the treaty hold for both countries right now?
In 2021, the first extension mainly marked a new stage of China-Russia relations after two decades of steady development. China and Russia have difficult time. Have complicated historical legacy. China and the Soviet Union even went to armed conflicts in late 1960s. But for more than two decades the two countries had built a stable framework for long-term cooperation.
Today, the context is much more complicated. Since 2021, we have seen the Ukraine crisis, Western sanctions on Russia, the second term of Donard Trump Administration, sharper U.S.-China competition inckuding tech restrictions, and slow recovery of the global economy after COVID-19 pandemic.
So the treaty is no longer only a symbol of good-neighborliness. It has become a political and legal anchor for both countries under pressure.
For Russia, the treaty is especially important now because it shows that Russia is not diplomatically isolated after the Ukraine War. There are still some countries would like to reassure the friendship. Just to make it clear that China does not want to take a side between Ukraine and Russia. We would like to make friends and trade with both sides. For China, the treaty is also significant because it strengthens China’s bargaining position in a changing world.
it helps both countries manage a much more uncertain future
(4)More broadly, how important are stable and friendly China-Russia ties for the Eurasian region?
It’s quite a big question but I would say it is very easy to understand that if China-Russia relationship is not stable, it would be a disaster for the region. That’s why it is so important. These are the two major powers in this region.
(5)And what impact do they have on the rest of the world?
I think it strengthens the efforts toward a more multipolar international order. I just want to highlight that during the state visit both countries reaffirmed the UN-centered international system, and opposition to unilateralism. Many developing countries may find parts of that language attractive. But I understand that some countries will often read the same development very differently and see the cooperation a potential threat to the existing order. Though I don’t think so.
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